Peak Oil-The Oil Crisis

The question has been around for years and as time goes by it becomes of greater importance as we look at rising gasoline prices. When will the world reach the point of “peak oil”? Peak Oil you ask? What is that? Simply said, peak oil is the point in time where we reach the maximum ability to discover, develop and produce oil throughout the world. After that point, the amount of oil that is brought to market no longer increases, but rather begins a steady decline to the zero point, or the point in which there is no longer any oil to exploit.

There are a number of points of view when it comes to peak oil, but it boils down to the following two sides. First, that we will never reach the point of peak oil as we are always discovering new sources, better technology and greater efficiency in our consumption. Though each aspect of that argument is valid, the idea that world oil is infinite is simply silly. Nothing, even the power of the sun is infinite. No matter what we do, there is always a point of diminishing returns and as the world population grows and becomes more addicted to the luxuries of life, (television, air conditioning, etc), our demand will increase as our locations in which to search declines. You could even argue that there is always more oil being produced and as we have never discovered how it is made, we can never be sure that we will ever run out. That is also true, but again if you were to run these arguments though a logic test, they would fail. They would fail for the following reasons, first the argument is that we will at some point reach our maximum of oil production and after that it will begin to fall. All things in nature, (including civilization), goes through cycles and oil production are the same. We will reach a point of where we can no longer produce ever increasing amounts, the laws of entropy would assure us of that point. Even if we drilled in every location possible for as long as possible, we would reach a maximum point of production and the decline would begin. Lastly, the argument of improvements in our efficiency of consumption are not relevant, for the whole discussion regarding peak oil is that of depleting a resource and not our use of that resource. So how fast we use our world oil is not related to how much we produce beyond the determination of rates of consumption.

This brings us to the 2^nd point of the argument; we have already reached the maximum point of production, (peak oil), and are now in a global decline of oil production. Yes, overall oil production has begun to decline, but again I assert that all things in nature have cycles and as the price of oil increases, the desire to locate new sources and the methods of extraction for those sources will improve. The world has been experiencing a decline in oil production due to several factors, spills, wars, increasing costs of extraction, permits being revoked or denied, and whole areas being put off limits such as the Florida Coast. Thus the price of oil has begun to rise, but the rise in cost is due more to factors as described before and not a lack of resources. Our current situation is one of our own creations and not one that will result in a hard deadline anytime soon.

So why are we worried about “peak oil”? In essence, we will reach a point in time that we can call the peak in oil production. There is no way around that fact. During the run up to peak oil, we will suffer increases in costs and at some point severe economic hardships. If we are to survive as a nation, we must develop new methods of energy production that do not require our dependence upon others who can and will effect our way of life whenever it suits them. No this doesn’t mean that we will need to ride bicycles to work or install mass public transportation, but it does mean that we may have to develop the technology for practical electric cars, (a 100 mile limit is not practical), or even switch to natural gas cars. Whatever the solution, the very idea that peak oil is possible creates a need for the research and development in these new technologies if we are to survive as a nation, for failure to do so will result in a nation of beggars fighting over scraps at the world’s table.

Enjoy!