Space, Population & Declining Nations

In July of 2011, the last space shuttle mission will take place and as such, it will signal the end of an era in America’s history. For the first time since the 1960s America will no longer have a manned space program. Our era of expansion, an era that has been ongoing since 1776, will finally come to an end. Yes, NASA and the Federal government both have plans for a continued manned space program, but they are only plans. Plans that have no legs, funding or any specific goal or timetable in mind, yet are herald throughout the nation as the future of America. If we were to look at it harshly, we could even say the plans are nothing more than a dream. As bad as not having a manned space program is, what does it really mean for America and its people?

When we look at what this change in direction means, we must first look at the history of nations in general. Nations, like nature and all the life that lives on this planet, have only two phases, growth or death. Any organism that is not growing is dying. The same applies to all the societies that have existed in the history of man. If a nation is to remain healthy, it must grow. That growth can be had in only one form, that form is one of expansion. Any nation that doesn’t grow, or seek methods in which to disperse its excess population, will soon wither. For example, take the nations of Europe, each of these nations, each of which has given up its colonial heritage, has had a stagnant population growth for the last few generations. Not so you say? Actually yes, each of these nations would be experiencing a population decline if it weren’t for the immigrants it takes in from other nations that are growing. The same could be said of the United States as our native population has a fertility rate of 2.06, which is lower that what scientists estimate would be needed to maintain our population, (2.1 is a developed nation’s full replacements rate). So in essence, even with immigration and all of the effects it brings, we are not producing enough live births to maintain our population.

Note: Russia’s fertility rate has shrunk to a low of 1.54 in the year 2009. It is projected to lose 1/3 of its 1991 (149 million) population by the year 2050.

Then we should look at what actions declining nations take in order to stave off its evitable decline and death. First, most nations that are in decline, begin a program to enhance the standard of living of its people though entitlement programs. No, The United States wasn’t the first, but the latest of a long line of nations who populations were distracted from the lack of work, with free bread and circuses. In fact, I believe that it was a desperate government in the past who had large numbers of unemployed who first came up with the idea of entitlements, but that is another story. We must then ask why were these entitlement programs so badly needed?

They were needed because since the nation was no longer expanding and their fertility rates had not yet begun to decline, the people who were involved in the expansion of the nation and the industries that supported that expansion, no longer had work. This caused unrest at home as these people returned, thus creating a new problem. How to handle the unrest that the newly unemployed and underemployed created? Each nation would in turn begin with entitlements, and then they would “enhance” the safety of its restless populace with talk of war, invasion, and security. They would then begin a program to stretch their currency through devaluation, which allowed them to increase the entitlements, but also beef up their security forces in order to maintain the control over the populace.

So the order of nations would go something like this, creation, expansion, end of expansion or contraction, entitlements, devaluation, security, and then what?

What is next would be the key question that we must ask ourselves. In most cases, the point a nation ended its expansion it either collapsed as a society and rebuilt or was conquered by another nation. Now that the United States has ceased its last program of expansion, (the space program), and we are well into the entitlement, devaluation and security aspect of our nation’s life, we only have two options as to how this will end. The only question is just how long will it take, a year, a decade, or a century? That’s what the end of our manned space program means to the people of America.

Enjoy!